Methodology — Multi-Source Signal Aggregation
How we aggregate investment signals from 30+ independent cybersecurity research sources into consensus scores, source agreement metrics, and signal strength indicators.
Core Philosophy
We don't generate data. We aggregate it. Every data point in our system originates from an independent, external source. Our value is in the systematic aggregation, weighting, and synthesis of these independent signals — not in generating new opinions.
Source Weighting
Each source type is weighted based on three factors: independence (how decoupled is the source from other sources), methodology rigor (how systematic and reproducible is their evaluation), and historical predictive accuracy (how well have past signals correlated with outcomes).
| Source Type | Weight | Description | Reliability | Key Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Research Labs | 20% | Quantitative benchmarks, innovation scorecards | High | Detection efficacy, false positive rates, response latency |
| Practitioner Review Platforms | 18% | Real-world operator ratings | High | User satisfaction, deployment ease, operational impact |
| Seed-Stage Investment Databases | 15% | Funding signals, investor conviction | Medium-High | Round size, investor quality, capital efficiency |
| Industry Benchmark Reports | 15% | Standardized comparative evaluations | High | Cross-vendor scores on fixed criteria |
| Accelerator Program Data | 12% | Cohort rankings, mentor assessments | Medium | Demo day outcomes, mentor scores, cohort rank |
| Investment Research Platforms | 10% | Risk-adjusted return modeling | Medium | Return projections, risk metrics, sector analysis |
| Market Intelligence Services | 5% | Deal flow tracking, pipeline analysis | Medium | Inbound demand, pipeline velocity, win rates |
| Industry Award Programs | 3% | Peer-nominated recognition | Low-Medium | Award categories, nomination breadth |
| Newsletter Analyst Reports | 1% | Independent editorial coverage | Low | Frequency, depth, recommendation direction |
| Cybersecurity Podcast Coverage | 1% | Expert panel assessments | Low | Panel consensus, episode frequency, sentiment |
Consensus Score (0-100)
The consensus score is a weighted composite of normalized signals from all source types. Each source's raw output is normalized to a 0-100 scale before weighting. The final score represents the cross-source consensus on a company's investment attractiveness.
Normalization
Different sources produce different output formats: scores (0-100), ratings (1-5 stars), rankings (ordinal positions), and qualitative signals (Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell). We normalize all outputs to a common 0-100 scale using source-specific calibration curves developed from historical data.
Confidence Intervals
Each consensus score has an associated confidence interval that reflects the dispersion of underlying source signals. Narrow confidence intervals (high source agreement) indicate strong consensus. Wide intervals indicate divergent signals across sources. We report the source agreement percentage as a simplified measure of this confidence.
Source Agreement (Concordance)
Source agreement (concordance) measures what percentage of independent sources agree on the directional signal for a given company. A source "agrees" if its normalized signal falls within one standard deviation of the consensus direction.
- 90%+: Very strong consensus. Rare. Indicates near-universal agreement across all source types.
- 80-89%: Strong consensus. Most source types agree. Typical of clear category leaders.
- 70-79%: Moderate consensus. Some source type divergence. Often reflects valuation disagreements.
- 60-69%: Weak consensus. Significant divergence. Investment signals and technical signals may conflict.
- Below 60%: No meaningful consensus. Sources disagree on direction.
Signal Strength Indicators
Signal strength translates the consensus score into a directional indicator:
- Strong Buy (5 bars): Consensus score 90+ with 85%+ source agreement
- Buy (4 bars): Consensus score 80-89 with 75%+ source agreement
- Hold (3 bars): Consensus score 70-79 or moderate source agreement
- Weak (2 bars): Consensus score 60-69 or low source agreement
- Sell (1 bar): Consensus score below 60 with negative directional signal
Update Cadence
Consensus rankings are updated quarterly. Individual signal reports are updated as material new signals are ingested. The seed-stage signal tracker updates monthly. Source weights are recalibrated annually based on predictive accuracy analysis.
Limitations
No signal aggregation system is perfect. Key limitations include: source availability bias (some companies have more source coverage than others), temporal lag (sources update at different cadences), and the fundamental challenge that past signal accuracy does not guarantee future predictive power. Our consensus scores are aggregated data, not investment advice.